IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.1	#103
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#299
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.5	#103

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	1.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	28.7%	34.2%	23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.1%	2.0%	0.3%
Average Seed	12.9	12.4	13.6

.500 or above	91.0%	96.5%	85.5%
.500 or above in Conference	90.3%	94.2%	86.4%
Conference Champion	38.6%	45.6%	31.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.3%	1.1%

First Four	1.1%	1.2%	1.1%
First Round	28.1%	33.6%	22.5%
Second Round	5.9%	8.2%	3.6%
Sweet Sixteen	1.8%	2.6%	1.0%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 3	6 - 4	8 - 7
Quad 4	13 - 2	20 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	150	@ Miami (OH)	W	68-67	50%
Nov 12, 2019	310	@ Tennessee Tech	W	72-62	83%
Nov 16, 2019	129	Kent St.	W	72-67	69%
Nov 25, 2019	191	Weber St.	W	76-70	71%
Dec 03, 2019	76	Western Kentucky	W	70-69	51%
Dec 07, 2019	158	Indiana St.	W	74-67	73%
Dec 12, 2019	346	Southern	W	76-55	97%
Dec 17, 2019	353	Mississippi Valley	W	81-56	99%
Dec 21, 2019	112	@ Toledo	L	67-70	42%
Dec 28, 2019	167	Green Bay	W	80-73	73%
Dec 30, 2019	250	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	73-61	84%
Jan 03, 2020	201	@ Oakland	W	73-69	61%
Jan 05, 2020	219	@ Detroit Mercy	W	76-72	64%
Jan 10, 2020	253	@ IUPUI	W	73-67	70%
Jan 12, 2020	131	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	71-72	48%
Jan 16, 2020	311	Cleveland St.	W	78-62	91%
Jan 18, 2020	225	Youngstown St.	W	77-66	81%
Jan 24, 2020	133	Northern Kentucky	W	72-67	68%
Jan 31, 2020	250	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	70-64	69%
Feb 02, 2020	167	@ Green Bay	W	77-76	54%
Feb 06, 2020	219	Detroit Mercy	W	79-69	81%
Feb 08, 2020	201	Oakland	W	76-66	79%
Feb 14, 2020	131	Illinois-Chicago	W	74-69	66%
Feb 16, 2020	253	IUPUI	W	76-64	84%
Feb 20, 2020	225	@ Youngstown St.	W	74-69	65%
Feb 22, 2020	311	@ Cleveland St.	W	75-65	80%
Feb 28, 2020	133	@ Northern Kentucky	L	69-70	48%
Projected Record						19 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.8	3.6	7.1	9.3	9.4	6.2	2.3		38.6	1st
2nd											0.1	1.4	4.7	7.1	5.6	2.2	0.3				21.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.4	4.4	4.8	2.5	0.5	0.0					13.7	3rd
4th									0.1	1.2	3.3	3.5	1.2	0.1	0.0						9.3	4th
5th								0.1	1.0	2.4	2.3	0.6	0.0								6.3	5th
6th							0.1	0.7	1.9	1.5	0.3	0.0									4.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.0	0.5	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0										2.8	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.1												1.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0													0.9	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.6	4.1	5.3	7.4	9.9	11.5	13.3	13.1	11.5	9.7	6.2	2.3			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.3		2.3
17-1	100.0%	6.2		6.0	0.2
16-2	96.6%	9.4		8.3	1.1	0.0
15-3	80.8%	9.3		6.7	2.5	0.1
14-4	53.7%	7.1		3.9	2.7	0.4	0.0
13-5	26.7%	3.6		1.2	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.8%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	38.6%	38.6		28.4	8.4	1.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.3%		77.7%	68.1%	9.6%	8.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.5		30.2%
17-1	6.2%		67.5%	61.7%	5.9%	11.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.9	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0		2.0		15.3%
16-2	9.7%		51.3%	49.9%	1.5%	12.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	2.0	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	4.7		2.9%
15-3	11.5%		41.6%	41.3%	0.4%	13.0											0.0	0.2	1.3	2.0	1.1	0.3	0.0	6.7		0.6%
14-4	13.1%		33.3%	33.3%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.6	1.6	1.5	0.6	0.0	8.8		0.1%
13-5	13.3%		24.8%	24.8%		14.0													0.1	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.1	10.0
12-6	11.5%		20.4%	20.4%		14.5													0.0	0.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	9.2
11-7	9.9%		14.5%	14.5%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	8.5
10-8	7.4%		9.1%	9.1%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	6.7
9-9	5.3%		8.4%	8.4%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	4.9
8-10	4.1%		5.6%	5.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	3.8
7-11	2.6%		2.7%	2.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	2.5
6-12	1.6%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
5-13	0.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
4-14	0.4%																							0.4
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		28.7%	27.9%	0.8%	12.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	1.8	5.8	7.6	6.0	3.9	1.6	71.3		1.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	5.0	3.8	4.1	17.9	20.5	23.8	13.7	3.8	2.5	1.8	4.0	2.3	1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	50.8%	7.2				0.6	17.9	8.4	9.5		0.6	2.2	9.5	2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	75.4%	10.2					1.8	1.8	5.3	1.8	8.8	26.3	3.5	26.3